To help prepare for the upcoming NFL season, I’ll be providing a preview of each position. In this edition I’ll cover the Top Three Quarterbacks, Best Value Pick, Sleeper Pick and Potential Bust. To stay consistent I’ll be referencing the Expert Consensus Rankings from FantasyPros. I’ve found from experience that the consensus rankings give a better overall picture of fantasy football rankings. This particular ranking provides the aggregate ADP (Average Draft Position) from FantasyPros experts while projected stats are coming from ESPN since they show 2015 season stats along with projected 2016 season stats.
Top Three Quarterbacks:
- Cam Newton, Panthers (QB1, 17.8 ADP)
Analysis: Cam Newton is coming off a fantastic NFL MVP season in 2015 where he threw for 3,837 yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions to go along with 636 yards rushing and 10 rushing touchdowns. On the plus side WR Kelvin Benjamin is returning from ACL surgery and will provide another big body target for Newton. It’s worth monitoring that TE Greg Olsen is currently dealing with back spasms but is expected to be ready for the season. Newton at 27-years-old is in the prime of his career and took big strides in the passing game last season. Based on ADP he’s going in the middle of the second round, which I think is a bit high based on the QB depth right now in fantasy. There’s great value if you can draft Newton in the third round or later. GTD Suggested Round: 3rd Round
- Aaron Rodgers, Packers (QB2, 25.4 ADP)
Analysis: It was a tough blow for the Packers in late August last season when star WR Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the second preseason game. This took away a huge target for the QB Aaron Rodgers and limited the potential for his and the Packers season. Rodgers still put up solid numbers as he passed for 3,821 yards, 31 passing touchdowns to eight interceptions to go along with 344 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Nelson appears to be a go for the regular season opener and to pair him with Randall Cobb and a fit Eddie Lacy there’s big upside in 2016. Rodgers ADP currently puts him in the early third round which in my opinion sounds about right. GTD Suggested Round: 3rd round
- Andrew Luck, Colts (QB4, 42.5 ADP)
Analysis: 2015 was a tough injury season for Colts QB Andrew Luck. According to an Indy Star article from January he suffered from a shoulder injury, torn cartilage on two of his ribs, and a lacerated kidney, which limited his season to only five games played. There were high hopes for Luck in 2015 following his fantastic 2014 campaign with 4,761 yards passing, 40 passing touchdowns, 273 yards rushing, three rushing touchdowns with a 96.5 passer rating. If Luck can bounce back from those tough injuries he could be in for a big season with a solid receiving core of Hilton, Moncrief and Dorsett. His ADP puts him in the middle of the third round but I’d consider him more of a fourth to fifth round pick. GTD Suggested Round: 4th round
Best Value Pick:
Eli Manning, Giants (QB9, 74.5 ADP)
Analysis: The Giants transition from Tom Coughlin as head coach to Ben McAdoo should be seamless and be a great sign for the Giants offense as they rebuild. The overall Giants roster is much improved and added a nice weapon at wide receiver with their second round pick of Sterling Shepard from Oklahoma.Manning set a career high in 2015 with 35 touchdowns and was able to limit his interception total to 14, matching his total from 2014. Under McAdoo Manning has thrived and Manning is a solid mid-round option at the QB position. GTD Suggested Round: 8th round
Jameis Winston, Bucs (QB17, 132.3 ADP)
Analysis: Jameis Winston had a fantastic rookie campaign in 2015 going 312-for-535 for 4,042 yards passing, 22 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 213 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns. With a new head coach in offensive minded Dirk Koetter along with weapons at wide receiver and out of the backfield there’s a good chance Winston continues to progress in his second season. He’s currently going in the 11th round, but look to target Winston towards the end of your draft if you have room with is high upside. GTD Suggested Round: Late Round
Blake Bortles, Jaguars (QB10, 78.1 ADP)
Analysis: Jaguars QB Blake Bortles with and ADP of 78.1 is going on average in the middle of the sixth round as QB10. I have my doubts that he’ll be able to reach the top-5 QB numbers he put up in 2015 for a variety of reasons. The Jaguars invested big time in defense in the offseason through the draft (six of seven draft picks) and through free agency (signing Malik Jackson) along with boosting their running game with the addition of RB Chris Ivory. Much of Borles stats last year came in garbage time as shown in the quote below from a PFF article, I tend to agree with Bortles being selected as my potential bust.
But Bortles’ 2015 campaign comes with a huge caveat: The Jaguars were playing catch-up in nearly every game. In fact, Bortles was third among all quarterbacks last season in terms of number of garbage-time snaps taken. As a result. Bortles ended up throwing a league-leading 14 touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
GTD Suggested Round: 10th Round
10 most overvalued fantasy players for 2016: https://t.co/Gu5E5nGxMM
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 13, 2016
I’ll be releasing a new position preview daily, be sure to come back and check Game-Time Decision.